While SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son dismisses bubble concerns as blasphemy against digital progress, the Basel-based financial watchdog remains unconvinced by the relentless optimism. The BIS report highlights that the race to dominate AI infrastructure is driving hyperscalers toward a potential trap of over-investment, where competitive pressure forces firms to pour capital into projects with increasingly uncertain payoffs.

Financial markets appear to be embracing the frenzy, with U.S. chipmaker stocks posting a record 75% rally in the second quarter of 2026. Deutsche Bank’s latest client survey confirms this shift, showing the lowest perceived bubble risk for the Magnificent Seven since 2021. Yet, the BIS points to a darker possibility: a scenario where AI-driven productivity gains cannibalize labor income so aggressively that consumer demand vanishes, leaving companies with massive capacity but no one to buy their output. This structural bottleneck, the bank suggests, could trigger a sharp transition from an investment boom to a protracted bust.