The SipSource forecast, which tracks depletion data across 20 major wholesalers, suggests that the total core spirits market will see its growth rates shift from -4.19% in early 2026 to -3.68% by the second quarter of 2027. While this represents a technical improvement, the figures confirm that the sector is still struggling to regain its footing after a period of sustained cooling.

Francis Creighton, CEO of the WSWA, noted that the data necessitates a shift toward disciplined business planning and highly targeted consumer engagement. The forecast highlights distinct variations in performance across categories: Vodka is currently positioned to outperform the broader market, while Rum, Irish Whiskey, and Brandy continue to trail. Meanwhile, U.S. Whiskey and Scotch segments are banking on 'affordable luxury' price tiers to drive a gradual recovery. The analysis, developed alongside consulting firm Kearney, relies on a dataset covering 70% of U.S. wholesale volume, providing a granular look at a market that has grown accustomed to persistent headwinds.