The crisis stems from a sharp decline in domestic refining throughput, which recently hit a 21-year low. As summer demand pushes gasoline consumption to 110,000 metric tons per day, Russia faces a daily shortfall of approximately 25,000 tons. To bridge this gap, the Russian parliament has fast-tracked tax amendments designed to subsidize import costs, specifically targeting maritime deliveries from India.

India, which serves as a primary buyer of discounted Russian crude, has effectively reversed the supply chain. After processing Russian oil, Indian refiners are now exporting the finished product back to the source. Moscow aims to sustain monthly imports of 400,000 metric tons from India and other international partners. While Belarus has tripled its rail-delivered gasoline shipments to 70,000 tons for the first half of June, these land-based efforts remain insufficient to stabilize the domestic market. The vulnerability of refineries across Russia’s vast landscape continues to complicate efforts to secure fuel supplies, forcing the Kremlin to prioritize domestic availability over its traditional export dominance.