Kyrgyzstan has already implemented price controls on lubricants and auto fuel as stations report growing shortages of high-octane gasoline. The situation is critical given that Russian imports accounted for two-thirds of the country’s fuel demand during the first five months of this year. In Tajikistan, where the economy relies on Russia for nearly all fuel, pump prices have surged by 9 percent since late May, forcing officials to consider alternative imports from Iran. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan’s national carrier, Uzbek Airways, has reduced flights to Russia, citing a lack of available jet fuel.

Even energy-rich Kazakhstan is bracing for volatility. While the country reports over a month of reserves despite maintenance at the Atyrau refinery, officials are seeking potential supply hedges from China. The pressure stems from widespread disruptions within Russia, where at least 55 federal regions now report fuel shortages severe enough to hamper municipal services like waste collection. Following a July 1 strike on an oil refinery in Bashkortostan, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukrainian long-range strikes will continue, further threatening the stability of energy exports to neighboring states.