While Asian markets saw a marginal 0.5% uptick Friday due to profit-taking during the U.S. holiday lull, the broader trend remains bearish. The forward curve for ICE Brent signals that immediate supply anxiety has largely evaporated. ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey noted that the influx of physical oil is actively depressing the front end of the forward curve, confirming a shift in market sentiment.

Gulf producers are currently accelerating exports to capitalize on the open transit corridor. Saudi Arabia alone has pushed over 10 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, with supertankers departing Ras Tanura at an increased pace to meet Asian demand. Analysts suggest that while the current market is oversold, the pressure will persist as long as the window for U.S.-Iran negotiations remains open, creating a temporary surplus that keeps prices pinned at pre-war levels.