Citigroup remains among the most bearish voices in the energy market, forecasting that the recent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to a significant influx of supply. Their assessment points to a weakening in Chinese crude demand and physical prices that have already begun to soften under the weight of increased Middle Eastern exports. While some analysts argue that the urgent need to refill depleted global inventories could provide a price floor, Citi suggests these pressures are insufficient to counter the broader market shift.

The sentiment is echoed by Goldman Sachs, which projects a global oil surplus of roughly 3 million barrels per day for the coming year. Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman, noted that even accounting for a million barrels per day dedicated to rebuilding strategic reserves, the market will still face an excess of 2 million barrels daily. Morgan Stanley has similarly revised its price expectations downward, citing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as a catalyst for an accelerated supply glut that will reshape the market over the next 18 months.