The gains were largely driven by Kuwait and Iran, the latter benefiting from the lifting of a U.S. naval blockade on its ports. Saudi Arabia and Iraq also ramped up operations, effectively bringing back online volumes that had been shuttered when tanker traffic stalled and storage facilities reached capacity. However, this recovery is less an expansion of supply than a reactive restart of existing wells. Shipowners and insurers remain wary of the Strait of Hormuz, where commercial vessel traffic continues to lag behind historical norms.

This discrepancy between official production quotas and actual export capacity explains the limited market impact of recent OPEC+ policy adjustments. As the cartel struggles to regain its former footing, external pressure on crude prices is mounting. The United States has hit a record production level of nearly 14 million barrels per day, and the UAE—operating independently of OPEC—is aggressively clearing its stockpiles. This combination of returning Gulf barrels and surging non-cartel supply is shifting the narrative from scarcity to a potential oversupply.