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Super El Niño Threatens to Lock India Into Coal Dependency

A persistent super El Niño is set to disrupt India’s energy transition by forcing a reliance on coal-fired power to compensate for anticipated shortfalls in renewable output. With wind speeds dropping and rainfall diminishing, the country faces a generation gap of nearly 18 TWh over the coming year.

Super El Niño Threatens to Lock India Into Coal Dependency

The Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) warns that the climate phenomenon will hit India harder than any other global energy system. As hydropower and wind projects falter under shifting weather patterns, the government faces an urgent need to prevent blackouts during extreme heat waves. Analysts estimate this reliance on fossil fuels will trigger a surge in coal consumption, resulting in an additional 17 million tonnes of CO2 emissions.

Despite aggressive investments in green infrastructure, coal currently accounts for roughly 60% of India’s electricity mix. The current climate stress highlights the fragile nature of this transition. Rajnath Ram, an adviser at the government policy think tank NITI Aayog, recently confirmed that coal will remain a foundational pillar of the national power grid for at least two decades. While officials emphasize the need for sustainable extraction and usage, the immediate priority remains securing a stable supply to meet rising cooling demands during the intensifying heat.

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