Indian refiners are balancing the lure of potential discounts against the persistent fear of secondary sanctions. While the memorandum of understanding signed in June officially permitted the trade of Iranian crude and petrochemicals, the current market response remains tepid. State-run firms had already secured significant supplies from non-Middle Eastern sources throughout the summer, leaving little immediate room for Iranian barrels in their refining schedules.

Beyond the logistical hurdle, the broader Asian market has shown surprising restraint. Demand for Iranian oil outside of China remains low, largely because the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a price collapse for competing crude from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait. These producers are currently flooding the market, making Iranian oil a less urgent priority for Indian buyers. If the U.S. waiver holds, however, industry sources suggest that deep discounts could eventually tempt Indian companies to integrate Iranian shipments into their portfolios before the August deadline expires.