The dependency on liquefied natural gas (LNG) is rising rapidly. While earlier forecasts suggested imports would cover a quarter of demand, current estimates indicate that overseas shipments will account for over 32% of total consumption by 2026. This shift is driving domestic prices upward, with industry analysts anticipating a 25% surge in costs throughout the year. The price hikes are hitting both households and businesses, complicating an inflation rate that reached 5.84% annually in May 2026, according to the national statistics agency DANE.

Domestic production is failing to bridge the gap. In April 2026, output fell to 694 million cubic feet per day, a 15% decline from the previous year and 36% lower than a decade ago. The depletion of key offshore fields like Chuchupa and Ballena, combined with a 17% year-over-year drop in proven reserves reported by the National Hydrocarbon Agency, has left the nation increasingly vulnerable. Critics point to the administration of President Gustavo Petro, whose policies—including a ban on new exploration contracts and frequent tax hikes on energy firms—have stifled investment and prompted companies like Exxon to exit the market.

Beyond energy policy, the operational environment is deteriorating. Rising lawlessness in rural regions, where illegal armed groups have grown to an estimated 22,000 members under the current "total peace" policy, further threatens infrastructure. With the national budget deficit projected to hit 6.6% of GDP in 2026, the combined pressure of energy insecurity and fiscal instability suggests a difficult path forward for the Colombian economy.