The IEA’s latest monthly report projects a sharper decline in Russian output, cutting the 2026 forecast by 85,000 barrels per day to 8.9 million, and the 2027 outlook by 150,000 barrels per day to 8.8 million. While Russia managed to increase crude production to 8.86 million barrels per day in June, this figure remains nearly a million barrels below its implied OPEC+ target of 9.76 million.

Domestic storage limitations have created a paradox where Russia is forced to export more crude even as its refining capacity suffers. President Vladimir Putin recently acknowledged the severity of the fuel supply issue, leading to a total ban on diesel exports as of Wednesday. This measure follows earlier restrictions on gasoline and jet fuel, marking a significant shift in Russia’s ability to manage its domestic market under the pressure of prolonged infrastructure attacks.