West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 2.0% to $79.73 a barrel, while Brent crude climbed 1.8% to $84.80. The proposed levy, which President Trump described as a blockade of Iranian trade, carries significant financial weight. ING strategists calculate that a 20% fee on a standard 2-million-barrel carrier would add roughly $32 million to transit costs, or an additional $16 per barrel—far exceeding the $1.00 toll previously sought by Iran.

Analysts warn that the policy creates a high-stakes standoff. Vivek Dhar of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia noted that the blockade incentivizes Iran to retaliate by enforcing its own restrictions, potentially locking the region into a cycle of maritime attacks. This uncertainty has rippled through Asian equities, where performance remains uneven. While South Korea’s Kospi index recovered to trade 0.5% higher behind gains in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, Taiwan’s Taiex fell 1.6%.

Currency markets are also showing strain. Strategists at DBS Group Research and CBA highlighted that energy-sensitive currencies like the Indian rupee, Indonesian rupiah, and Thai baht face mounting pressure as oil prices climb. Carol Kong, an economist at CBA, warned that the military confrontation could drag the Australian dollar toward support at 0.6847, as investors pull back from risk-sensitive assets amid fears of a prolonged disruption to global energy supplies.