The decline marks a consistent downward trend, with June volumes sliding an additional 12% from May, which had already hit an eight-year low. Faced with soaring feedstock costs and restrictive fuel export policies, domestic refiners have aggressively scaled back operations. Refinery run rates dropped to an estimated 57.72% last month, a further 3.28 percentage point decline from May, according to Oilchem.

Beijing’s ability to withstand the disruption relies heavily on massive stockpiles, estimated between 1.2 billion and 1.3 billion barrels, built in the year preceding the conflict. While initial market projections suggested a recovery in imports as Middle Eastern flows stabilized, the outlook has soured. Renewed U.S. blockades on Iranian exports and fresh regional escalations are driving prices upward again, dashing hopes for a swift return to pre-war market conditions and threatening a protracted global energy shortage.