The survey of nine analysts and traders suggests a moderate contraction for the week, bringing total crude inventories to 410.5 million barrels. Expectations for refined products are similarly tight: gasoline stocks are anticipated to shed 300,000 barrels to hit 211.8 million, while distillate fuel inventories, primarily diesel, are forecast to slide by 100,000 barrels to 103.5 million.

Behind these inventory shifts, refinery capacity utilization is expected to edge up by one-tenth of a percentage point to 95.9%. However, the margin of error remains wide, as individual firm predictions for crude movement span a 5.8 million-barrel spread. The official government data arrives Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT, providing the final word on whether the market is tightening as quickly as the consensus suggests.