The Houthi movement has pre-positioned stockpiles of drones and advanced missiles across Yemen’s strategic highlands, specifically targeting areas overlooking Hodeidah and the Gulf of Aden. IRGC representatives embedded in Yemen are expected to oversee the tactical execution of any blockade. With 7% of the world’s energy trade passing through this gateway, a closure would force international vessels on long detours around Africa, severely inflating transit costs and exacerbating global energy instability.

Saudi Arabia remains the most vulnerable player in this escalation. Following the collapse of a four-year truce on July 13, the Kingdom has rerouted approximately 70% of its energy exports through the Red Sea port of Yanbu, relying heavily on the 1,200-kilometer East-West Crude Oil Pipeline. Exports through Yanbu spiked to 4.7 million barrels per day following the breakdown in hostilities. To counter the threat of a prolonged multi-front disruption, Riyadh is now evaluating a major infrastructure expansion to upgrade its western pipeline network and terminal capacity as a permanent hedge against regional volatility.