Samson downgraded Fidelity’s gold position from overweight to neutral between January and February, just before prices retreated from a record peak of $5,600 per ounce. He describes the current landscape as a mix of tactical headwinds and tailwinds, expecting only modest price gains through the end of the year. The firm’s long-term conviction hinges on the absence of a return to orthodox fiscal policy and the failure of central banks to curb inflation effectively.

Technically, Samson identifies the $4,000 per ounce level as a critical support zone. A shift toward bullish sentiment would require gold to reclaim $4,300 per ounce or see the 50-day moving average cross above longer-term trend lines. Beyond technicals, central bank buying remains the primary structural force. Samson argues that persistent strategic demand from these institutions makes upward price pressure nearly inevitable over the medium to long term.