The 16% month-on-month increase in shipments, tracked by Kpler and Vortexa, reflected a robust start to the month before the security environment deteriorated. While Iraq and Saudi Arabia initially drove the expansion, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has since slowed to a trickle. Analysts now expect the mounting risks to force production cuts, as the logistical bottleneck makes maintaining such high export volumes untenable.

Renewed dual blockades have transformed the waterway into a primary site of friction. With Iranian strikes on vessels and U.S. counter-measures targeting Iran-linked shipping, the maritime corridor is effectively compromised. Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh noted that the coming weeks will determine a sustainable export baseline under these conditions. The market has already reacted to the instability, with Brent crude climbing above $90 per barrel, while WTI crude reached $84.25.