India relies on imports for over 85% of its oil consumption, traditionally sourcing half of those barrels from the Middle East. Under existing long-term contracts, refiners bear the burden of arranging transport, a task that has turned prohibitively expensive and dangerous. The Ministry of Shipping has already prohibited the deployment of Indian seafarers on vessels transiting the waterway until further notice.

This shift accelerates a pivot toward more secure supply chains. Russian crude continues to flow at nearly 2.45 million barrels per day, while supplies from the UAE and Saudi Arabia remain resilient due to pipeline infrastructure that bypasses the Strait entirely. Iraq, lacking such alternatives, now faces a stranded supply scenario. As Brent crude climbs past $90 per barrel, the market is grappling with a reality where oil remains in the ground simply because the path to move it has become a combat zone.