The volatility reflects a fundamental shift in market logic. Earlier in the week, the industry treated the Strait of Hormuz as a manageable risk, assuming established diplomatic channels would eventually stabilize the flow. That consensus disintegrated after the U.S. military conducted its twelfth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets. With Iran’s Revolutionary Guards asserting total control and declaring the waterway closed, the prospect of a sustained supply chain fracture has become the market's primary concern.

Beyond the immediate conflict, the crisis has exposed systemic vulnerabilities in crude logistics. Saudi Arabia’s alternate export routes through the Red Sea are now perceived as equally exposed, forcing traders to account for soaring freight costs and tightening fuel markets. A tanker fire near Oman late in the week served as the final catalyst, signaling that the threat to maritime traffic is no longer theoretical but an active, daily disruption to global supply.