The recovery follows a severe contraction in May, when production fell to levels unseen since 2000. Iraq and Kuwait spearheaded the July gains, with Kuwait alone ramping up to 1.971 million bpd from 1.65 million in June. Iran also managed a modest uptick in supply during a brief two-week window free from U.S. export restrictions.

Despite these gains, the group continues to fall short of its official OPEC+ targets. While the alliance recently signaled a plan to lift production quotas by an additional 188,000 bpd starting in September, practical application remains difficult. Security concerns in the Persian Gulf continue to impede tanker traffic, suggesting that the formal unwinding of 2023 output cuts may remain largely theoretical until regional transit stabilizes.