The International Energy Agency now predicts a 1.6 million barrel per day slump in demand for the year, a sharp 510,000 barrel revision from its July outlook. This pessimism stems directly from the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the failure of diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran. While OPEC remains slightly more optimistic than the IEA, the cartel also scaled back its growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, down from the previously anticipated 780,000.

Domestic data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration further pressured prices, revealing that commercial stockpiles climbed to 424.4 million barrels. This buildup was fueled by a 1.14 million barrel per day jump in imports, contrasted by a significant decline in export volumes. With inventories now sitting just 2% below the five-year average, traders are balancing the immediate impact of these supply figures against the broader, long-term uncertainty surrounding Middle Eastern shipping corridors.