OPEC+ has commissioned the consultancy DeGolyer and MacNaughton to independently verify the sustainable production capacities of its members. The resulting data, expected by late September, will form the foundation for 2027 quota discussions. While a higher baseline offers the necessary regulatory clearance to scale up, Iraq faces a structural bottleneck that could stall the project regardless of OPEC’s cooperation.

The country remains tethered to the Strait of Hormuz, a volatile transit point that has historically restricted export volumes. To mitigate this reliance, officials are exploring alternate corridors through Turkey, Syria, and Jordan. Expanding the Ceyhan pipeline and constructing a new link to the Syrian port of Baniyas are central to this strategy. However, the Syrian project alone carries a $15 billion price tag and a four-year timeline, highlighting the massive capital expenditure required to move the extra oil. Meanwhile, China has already begun positioning itself as a primary buyer, recently securing 8 million barrels of Basrah Heavy and Medium crude as supply routes across the Middle East continue to shift.