August projections indicate a drop to 2 million barrels per day, a stabilization point expected to persist in the near term. This pullback stems from a dual pressure: persistent Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian export infrastructure and aggressive purchasing by China, which has successfully diverted cheaper Russian supply away from Indian refiners.

State-controlled refiners in India are responding by diversifying their procurement strategies. With the Middle East crisis complicating transit through the Strait of Hormuz and squeezing term delivery reliability, these firms are increasingly active in the spot market. This search for stable supply has shifted focus toward crude shipments from West Africa and the Americas, ensuring that India’s rising domestic demand remains met despite the tightening Russian export capacity.