No final decision has been reached, yet the move would signify a major fracture within the cartel. Venezuela, currently exempt from production quotas due to prolonged economic instability and sanctions, produced approximately 1.117 million barrels per day in July. Its withdrawal would follow the recent exit of the United Arab Emirates, signaling deepening fractures over production constraints and internal policy.

Washington is concurrently negotiating deeper involvement in Venezuela’s energy sector, including potential 100-year leases on key assets. While Chevron has already expanded its footprint, companies like SLB and Hunt Oil are also securing agreements with the state-run PDVSA. Although Venezuela holds an estimated 303 billion barrels of proven reserves, restoring significant output remains a multi-year challenge. With Iraq also questioning its membership status, OPEC faces a precarious future as it struggles to balance internal production capacity against the rising influence of non-member suppliers like the United States, Brazil, and Guyana.