Refining margins are projected to reach $63 per barrel in the United States and $49 per barrel in the European Union by 2027. These figures represent a sharp upward revision from previous estimates of $27 and $19 respectively. The surge stems from a convergence of damaged infrastructure and deliberate export restrictions that have crippled global capacity.

In the Middle East, conflict-related damage has reduced fuel exports to roughly 40% of pre-war levels. Simultaneously, Russian production faces pressure from sustained drone strikes, prompting Moscow to extend its diesel export ban through September. The European market remains uniquely vulnerable due to earlier policy-driven refinery closures, which were predicated on a decline in demand that has failed to materialize. With global crack spreads hitting triple digits in the U.S. this month, the refining sector is currently reaping historic profits from the persistent fuel scarcity.