The decline in Russian shipments originates largely from the Black Sea, where security concerns have spiked. Ukrainian drone activity has turned the port of Novorossiysk into a liability, forcing freight costs for Suezmax tankers toward $20 per barrel. While Baltic ports offer a cheaper alternative, they carry heightened risks of seizure by European authorities, pushing Russian exporters toward the Northern Sea Route. This logistical pivot naturally favors Chinese ports, which are absorbing more Urals crude as China ramps up imports to 7.4 million barrels per day.

Simultaneously, India’s supply cushion is thinning. Domestic fuel demand remains unexpectedly robust, bolstered by an El Niño-driven heatwave that sustained irrigation needs and road traffic. With refinery maintenance cycles postponed to capitalize on strong margins, Indian refiners are forced to look elsewhere to fill the void. While imports from the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait are showing signs of recovery, the era of cheap, reliable Russian barrels is fading. Russian crude is currently trading at parity with or at a premium to Brent, leaving Indian buyers to navigate a volatile autumn where traditional maritime chokepoints and geopolitical friction make every cargo significantly harder to secure.