Daily oil flows through the Persian Gulf currently average 6 million barrels, a figure that masks the reality of a shrinking maritime corridor. Kpler data indicates only five commodity vessels traversed the waterway on Monday, a sharp drop from the ten-day average of 14 ships. While producers had recently grown confident in navigating the chokepoint, analysts at ING warn that any further escalation will place these remaining flows under severe pressure.

Global energy markets are struggling with dwindling buffers. U.S. inventories are nearing historic minimums, and China faces mounting pressure to maintain low import levels as seasonal demand shifts gears. The instability extends beyond crude to the diesel market, where supply remains critically tight. Russia recently extended its diesel export ban through the end of the month following persistent strikes on its refinery infrastructure, while Middle Eastern fuel exports face parallel disruptions from the ongoing blockade and regional refinery damage.