The average estimate from six analysts and traders points to a modest drawdown, bringing total commercial crude stocks to 428.6 million barrels. Market sentiment remains divided, however, with individual forecasts swinging between a significant 2.5 million barrel withdrawal and a 1 million barrel build. These figures arrive ahead of the official Energy Information Administration report due Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Downstream products are expected to follow the crude trend. Gasoline inventories are projected to shrink by 1.7 million barrels, while distillate fuels—primarily diesel—are forecast to fall by 700,000 barrels. Meanwhile, refinery operations appear to be cooling slightly; capacity utilization is seen slipping to 97.1%, down from 97.4% the previous week. As firms navigate these shifting supply levels, the data will provide a clearer picture of whether recent demand patterns are sustainable or merely a temporary fluctuation in the U.S. energy sector.