The ICE gasoil crack reached a record $79 per barrel on Tuesday, while U.S. diesel margins remain locked above $100 per barrel. ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey point to the acute tightness reflected in market timespreads, where the ICE gasoil September-November contract is trading at a backwardation of $80 per ton. This structure signals deep anxiety regarding immediate supply availability.

Disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, have left the global refining system with virtually no slack to compensate for lost volume. Chinese fuel exports remain suppressed following domestic policy restrictions, further limiting the world's ability to plug the gap. Consequently, Goldman Sachs has doubled its profit forecasts for refiners, predicting that companies will continue to reap significant gains from the current supply squeeze as the global market enters a period of peak seasonal demand.