Despite the morning bounce, the broader market remains dominated by the hawkish trajectory of the Federal Reserve. Investors are still pricing in a 67% to 70% probability of a September rate hike, as the 10-year Treasury yield holds above 4.8% and the 30-year yield sits near 5.28%. This environment creates a conflicted setup: while the labor data provides a catalyst for short-covering, the rally remains fundamentally vulnerable to the strength of the dollar and elevated bond yields.

Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to complicate the outlook for safe-haven assets. With Brent crude trading near $95 and WTI above $90, the threat of shipping disruptions is keeping energy prices inflated. This oil-driven pressure feeds directly into inflation expectations, reinforcing the market’s conviction that the Fed may need to maintain aggressive policy. Technically, both metals remain in damaged territory; gold is currently struggling to reclaim the $4,422 resistance level, while silver faces a similar hurdle at $65.37. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report will likely serve as the definitive test, determining whether the current price action marks a genuine base or merely another lower high.