Core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq will convene online at 11:00 GMT to finalize policy for October. While the alliance recently completed a phased rollback of 1.65 million barrels per day in supply cuts, the additional volume has struggled to reach global markets. Actual output remains significantly lower than official quotas, hampered by the conflict in Ukraine and tanker attacks that have choked off key export routes from the Gulf.

Brent crude currently trades near $94 per barrel, driven by fears over physical scarcity rather than the group’s administrative decisions. As the alliance loses its grip on market influence, internal friction is intensifying. Dallas-based consultancy DeGolyer and MacNaughton is conducting a capacity audit due later this month, a move prompted by members like Iraq demanding higher quotas. With the UAE having already exited the group in May and Venezuela signaling potential departure, the unity of the coalition faces its most severe test since the inception of the 2023 production pact.