The volatility stems from a convergence of geopolitical crises. Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran have cast a shadow over the Strait of Hormuz, while Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries continue to squeeze global output. These disruptions hit a refining complex already suffering from thin spare capacity, leaving little room for error. The NYMEX one-month heating-oil/crude spread, tracked via the HOCL1 Index, surged past $100 per barrel this week, signaling deep market unease.

President Trump recently convened a closed-door summit with top refining executives, pressuring them to boost output as retail gasoline prices climb toward the politically sensitive $4 threshold. Despite this, experts see few immediate solutions. Goldman Sachs commodity analyst Daan Struyven noted that global refinery runs remain 7 million barrels per day below last year’s levels. While China possesses the spare capacity to potentially ease the strain, DNB Carnegie economist Kelly Chen suggests Beijing currently lacks the strategic incentive to intervene on behalf of Western markets.