The current supply crisis stems from a convergence of geopolitical strikes and aging infrastructure. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries have forced a total ban on diesel exports, while regional instability in the Persian Gulf has disrupted output from major facilities like Bapco and Qatar’s GTL plants. Analysts warn these are not temporary outages; the complexity of repairing such damage means these barrels will remain offline for years.

According to International Energy Agency data, refinery throughput in July lagged 5 million barrels per day behind year-ago levels. Brian Mandell, an executive at Phillips 66, recently noted that roughly 8.4 million barrels of daily capacity remain offline across Asia, the Middle East, and Russia. Because spare parts and reconstruction efforts face significant lead times, global markets remain unable to offset these bottlenecks. Nikhil Agarwal of Globestar Energy summarized the outlook at a Dubai industry summit, noting that while the world has plenty of crude, the system lacks the hardware to refine it and deliver it to consumers.