Only last month, Mitsui OSK Lines projected a gradual resumption of transit through the region starting in October 2026, with full normalization anticipated by January 2027. That timeline has now been discarded. Following the first direct strikes between the U.S. and Iran in over a month, the company determined that safety guarantees are nonexistent.

Traffic through the strait has plummeted to a negligible number of daily transits. While some vessels continue to navigate the area under darkness to bypass detection, the latest flare-up threatens to reverse the fragile recovery of oil flows seen in recent weeks. For Japan, a nation heavily reliant on energy imports, the instability has forced a shift in strategy. The government is now fast-tracking an import diversification plan, prioritizing pipeline infrastructure that bypasses the Persian Gulf entirely. Until sustainable security is verified, the tanker giant remains committed to its avoidance policy, leaving the global energy market to grapple with prolonged logistical volatility.