The Kremlin continues to project confidence regarding its fuel supply, even as the energy sector grapples with the fallout from repeated Ukrainian drone attacks. These strikes have targeted not only refining capacity but also critical export terminals across the Black Sea and the Baltic, forcing a temporary ban on diesel exports that remains in effect through September.

Despite official assurances, independent analysts paint a more strained picture of the upstream sector. Rystad Energy recently slashed its 2026 production forecast for Russia to 8.95 million barrels per day, citing a systemic inability to handle the excess crude that refineries can no longer process. Daria Melnik, Vice President of Oil and Gas Research at the firm, noted that the infrastructure is failing to absorb the imbalance, effectively forcing producers to remove barrels from the market entirely.