Refiners from Chevron, Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, and PBF Energy are currently operating at near-maximum capacity, pushing utilization rates to 98% nationwide by late August. Despite these record margins, companies are unwilling to commit to new infrastructure projects. Analysts note that constructing a refinery takes years, and by the time such a facility would become operational, the anticipated decline in fuel demand could leave investors with stranded assets. Robert Campbell of Energy Aspects emphasized that no company is prepared to bank a massive capital expenditure on a few months of peak profitability.

The current supply bottleneck is driven by global factors far beyond the control of domestic refiners. Disruptions in the Middle East and Russia have removed roughly 8 million barrels per day of refining capacity from the global market. Brian Mandell of Phillips 66 warned that these systemic issues, coupled with the difficulty of sourcing spare parts, suggest that current high-intensity operations are unsustainable. As refiners struggle to maintain output levels not seen since 2000, the industry argues that the primary driver of high pump prices remains the soaring cost of WTI crude, which spiked following the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran earlier this year.