Global equity markets mirrored the cautious sentiment, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closing lower as risk appetite waned. The primary catalyst remains the shifting outlook for monetary policy; futures markets now price in a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. Market participants are looking beyond the expected increase to guidance from Chair Kevin Warsh. If the Fed signals a prolonged tightening cycle, bullion may continue to struggle against the weight of rising real yields.

Geopolitical tension in the Strait of Hormuz is creating a complex environment for traders. While supply disruptions and oil prices above $100 per barrel typically bolster safe-haven demand, they simultaneously fuel inflation expectations that force yields higher. This dual pressure has left gold and silver unable to reclaim key technical resistance levels, specifically the $4,316 ceiling for gold and $63.76 for silver. Until the Fed clarifies its path, these metals remain tethered to the performance of the dollar and the benchmark Treasury note.