The price surge to $101.69 was driven by the sudden loss of the kingdom’s primary bypass for the Strait of Hormuz, a route that typically handles up to 5 million barrels per day. The market reacted to the physical damage at three pumping stations, viewing the disruption as a direct threat to global supply chains. However, the subsequent pivot to Sohar transfers for Asian refiners has provided a temporary floor for logistics, tempering investor anxiety.

Despite these efforts, uncertainty persists regarding the timeline for full repairs, with estimates varying from a few days to over a month. Ongoing Houthi activity near Perim Island and the Red Sea entrance keeps the geopolitical risk elevated, as the Middle East faces a narrowing margin of safe transit routes. While the immediate supply math has improved, the sustained vulnerability of regional infrastructure ensures that energy markets remain highly sensitive to further security incidents.