The timing of the suspension suggests a direct response to Pashinyan’s September 11 declaration that Armenia is actively seeking alternative energy sources. With Russia accounting for 82 percent of Armenia’s gas imports in 2025, the sudden move creates an immediate stress test for the Armenian economy. While Gazprom Armenia claims that domestic reserves and Iranian imports will prevent a shortfall, the government in Yerevan has yet to address how it will manage the disruption.

Simultaneously, Azerbaijan has positioned itself as a potential energy partner, though the offer remains tethered to a contentious peace process. Azerbaijani official Azer Badamov noted that his country could serve as a natural supplier, provided that Armenia finalizes a peace agreement brokered in Washington. Baku continues to demand constitutional amendments from Armenia to formally recognize Azerbaijani sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh, a condition that remains politically explosive within Armenia. Despite Pashinyan’s parliamentary majority, the prospect of a national referendum on constitutional changes faces intense domestic opposition, leaving the government caught between the necessity of energy diversification and the heavy political cost of a deal with Baku.