The diplomatic stalemate remains absolute. A planned September 11 summit in Oman meant to address the blockaded strait has been indefinitely postponed, and congressional efforts to check executive war-making face a near-certain veto. Instead of resolving the conflict, the administration is betting on a structural shift in global energy logistics to insulate the American economy from the Persian Gulf.

Bessent’s timeline relies on trends that began long before the current crisis. According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude imports from Gulf states had already plummeted to forty-year lows by early this year, accounting for just 7% of total intake. Domestic production and steady Canadian imports have effectively displaced the region as a primary supplier. By treating the strait as a declining asset rather than a strategic bottleneck, the administration is effectively conceding that they have no intention of reopening the passage through political negotiation.