Boston Consulting Group’s 24th annual global report signals an era of cooling expansion, with revenue growth dropping from the 7% seen over the last five years. While the market is projected to reach $2.6 trillion by 2030, the gains are no longer uniform. North America and Europe, which represent 85% of the total revenue pool, are expected to grow at 5%, while the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America are outpacing them at 8% and 7% respectively.

Operating leverage has shifted into negative territory as costs for cloud infrastructure, labor, and fragmented technology stacks outpace revenue. Inderpreet Batra, a BCG managing director, notes that the era of broad-based growth is over, requiring leaders to pinpoint specific regional and model-based advantages. Firms that successfully integrate AI to lower costs and deepen customer relationships are widening the gap against slower competitors.

Fragmentation and Sovereignty

The global payment landscape is fracturing as governments treat infrastructure as a matter of economic sovereignty. With 137 countries now operating instant, 24-7 payment systems, established global networks face competition from domestic initiatives like India’s UPI and the potential rollout of a digital euro. Newer efforts such as mBridge and BRICS Pay further signal a move to reduce reliance on dollar-denominated rails. Markus Ampenberger, coauthor of the report, warns that winning providers must now navigate this fragmented reality for their clients rather than relying on a single, unified global system.