Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven estimate that global central banks purchased 44 tonnes of gold in July, significantly outpacing the pre-2022 monthly average of 17 tonnes. The firm’s proprietary nowcast model, which tracks over-the-counter market flows into private vaults, suggests that China’s central bank accounted for 35 tonnes of that total—a figure far higher than official public records indicate. This consistent sovereign appetite serves as the primary structural floor for the metal's valuation.

The path to the $4,900 target relies on a steady accumulation of 50 tonnes per month through 2026, paired with a projected recovery in ETF investor interest as the Federal Reserve maintains current interest rate levels. However, the analysts warn that the market is increasingly susceptible to sharp price swings. The rise of gold call options as a macro-policy hedge has created a feedback loop: as prices climb, dealers are forced to purchase physical gold to hedge their short exposure, which can mechanically accelerate rallies or deepen corrections depending on Fed-related sentiment.