While earlier reports of Saudi Arabia restarting its East-West pipeline temporarily pushed Brent below the $100 mark, the reprieve proved short-lived. The market now faces a geopolitical stalemate centered on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s President Masou Pezeshkian has explicitly rejected the U.S. approach, labeling the administration’s rhetoric a bullying tactic while reaffirming that Tehran will not yield to external pressure.

Tehran has tied the reopening of the vital Strait to a specific list of demands, including the immediate lifting of naval blockades, the removal of economic sanctions, and the unfreezing of state assets. Washington has neither accepted these terms nor offered a concrete counter-proposal, keeping the threat of supply disruption firmly on the table. Despite a recent six-day slide in pricing, the market retains a bullish edge, with ING commodity strategists noting that benchmarks remain up 60% year-to-date. The reality of the conflict continues to outweigh technical improvements in supply infrastructure, ensuring that oil prices remain hypersensitive to every shift in diplomatic tone.