Refiners pushed exports to 6.01 million tons in August—a 12.7% increase over the previous year—following the mid-July lifting of restrictions imposed during the Strait of Hormuz crisis. While jet fuel shipments recently reached an all-time high, the momentum is unlikely to persist. GL Consulting suggests that the surge in overseas shipments, coupled with robust autumn demand for agricultural diesel and summer travel fuel, has drained domestic buffers to critical levels.

With supply chains strained, the market focus has shifted from simple inventory levels to a broader supply-demand imbalance. Refiners are expected to redirect barrels away from international buyers to shore up domestic balances through October. This withdrawal from the global market threatens to worsen the existing fuel crunch, further complicating the price environment for regions already grappling with record retail costs and refinery margin volatility.