By 22:00 GMT Thursday, the contract settled at $94.76, marking a 0.74% decline for the week. This price action underscores a fundamental shift in trader sentiment: markets shed risk premiums when Iranian officials floated a possible deal, only to re-engage when it became clear that workaround routes fail to replicate the efficiency of standard shipping lanes. Without documented proof of normalized tanker traffic, the premium remains embedded in the price.

Saudi and Iraqi shipments largely dictated the week’s supply narrative. Saudi Aramco ramped up exports through the Strait to compensate for disruptions following attacks on the East-West Pipeline, which had previously hampered Red Sea loadings. Tanker tracking data revealed approximately 14 million barrels loaded onto seven Very Large Crude Carriers within the Gulf. While the partial restart of the East-West Pipeline provided a critical alternative, it remains insufficient to restore full capacity, leaving the global crude market tethered to the fragile status quo of the Gulf.