Saudi Arabia leads this resurgence, currently exporting 5.4 million barrels per day. The kingdom has effectively redirected flows toward eastern markets, utilizing ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman to maintain volume. Port operations at Ras Tanura remain steady, processing 3.6 million barrels daily—a figure consistent with the country’s 2025 performance metrics.

Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, attributes the regional ramp-up to both pipeline outages and a newfound reliance on the Strait of Hormuz despite persistent security concerns. Although official tanker tracking shows traffic in the waterway has dipped—falling below 10 vessels compared to a 10-day average of 18—the data is incomplete. Analysts note that an increasing number of vessels are operating in "dark mode" to evade detection and potential strikes in the region. These risks are intensifying, following reports of explosions and missile activity near the strait after the collapse of recent peace negotiations.