The French bank remains cautious on the short-term outlook, noting that if gold cannot push past the $4,315 pivot high, the decline will likely extend toward $4,095 and the crucial June-July trough zone of $3,960 to $3,940. Despite this immediate technical weakness, the firm maintains a 10% allocation to gold, signaling that its long-term conviction remains intact.

Société Générale analysts point to a structural shift in global finance as the primary driver for gold demand. Central banks are actively diversifying away from U.S. Treasuries, fueled by concerns over fiscal credibility and geopolitical fragmentation. This institutional buying, coupled with an expectation of lower real interest rates and a softer dollar, provides a fundamental floor for the metal. Consequently, the bank projects a significant recovery, forecasting prices to reach $4,750 per ounce by the end of 2026, climbing toward $5,250 by the third quarter of 2027.