Data from Kpler indicates that while Russian oil imports slipped to a daily average of 1.75 million barrels in September—down from 2.1 million in August—Russia persists as the country's primary single supplier. The shift coincides with a broader expansion of India’s total import volume, which climbed to 5.3 million barrels daily, marking a significant 600,000-barrel increase over the previous month.

Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia noted that the recent cooling in Russian flows does not signal a strategic pivot away from Moscow. Instead, the current figures reflect a return to pre-war import levels for Middle Eastern suppliers. This delicate balancing act occurs under the shadow of potential U.S. sanctions, where officials have floated the prospect of 100% tariffs on Indian goods. Such a move threatens to destabilize ongoing bilateral trade negotiations between New Delhi and Washington, complicating India's position as the world's second-largest importer of Russian crude.