The rally, which marks a 24% increase since mid-July, stems from a series of safety-related mine suspensions in the Shanxi province following a deadly May disaster. With China still relying on coal for roughly half of its power generation, the government has designated the fuel a critical safeguard for the electricity grid, even as it expands its renewable capacity.

Simultaneously, imports have faltered. Indonesian shipments to China dropped by approximately 25% year-to-date, hampered by government production quotas and extreme weather. A strong El Niño has lowered river levels, obstructing the transport of coal barges to export ports. As winter approaches, Beijing has urged local miners to maximize output to stabilize the energy market and prevent further volatility in the power sector.