Independent refiners, known as teapots, face the most acute pressure. These firms have long relied on discounted barrels from Iran and Venezuela to stay profitable, but U.S. policy shifts have effectively choked off these cheaper supply lines. With those options vanishing, the combination of high market prices and soaring freight costs is forcing a slowdown in processing rates.

State-owned energy giants are equally cautious, showing little interest in aggressive purchasing at current price points. While August saw a modest rise in imports to 23.4% below year-ago levels—an improvement from June’s decade-low figures—that momentum is fading. Analysts now project fourth-quarter volumes to settle between 9.2 million and 9.3 million barrels per day, a significant drop from last year’s 11.6 million barrel average. Samuel Kong of FGE NexantECA noted that hefty premiums and expensive logistics are squeezing margins, leaving little room for a year-end surge in demand.